How Argentina’s Recent Form Positions Lionel Messi for Future World Cup Glory

In December 2022, Lionel Messi and the Argentina national team put an end to a 36-year World Cup drought by clinching football’s most coveted trophy in a dramatic final against France.

Dubbed by some as the Messi vs. Mbappé showdown, this match saw both star players and their teammates shine on football’s grandest stage, delivering 120 minutes of exhilarating play.

Mbappé might feel hard done by his team’s defeat, having made history himself by scoring the first hat-trick in a World Cup final since Sir Geoff Hurst’s iconic performance for England at Wembley in July 1966.

Prior to the tournament in Qatar, La Albiceleste signalled their ambition by triumphing over Brazil in the 2021 Copa America final, marking their first title in that competition since 1993.

They have continued on this upward trajectory, subsequently winning the 2024 Copa America against Colombia and sitting comfortably atop the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying table.

Having played 12 matches in their qualifying campaign thus far, Argentina boasts eight victories, a single draw, and three losses, amassing 25 points—12 clear of Bolivia, currently in the seventh playoff position for the 2026 tournament.

Barring an unprecedented collapse, Argentina looks set to defend their title in just over a year.

For the first time since 1994, the World Cup will primarily return to North America, with Mexico and Canada also playing host to some matches. Messi’s transfer to Inter Miami is likely to prove a masterstroke, particularly for local ticket sales.

World Cup 2026: A Potential Fitting Finale to Messi’s Career

Messi has already raised the competitive bar in MLS, with stadiums routinely sold out for his matches. It’s fair to say he has elevated the sport in the US to new heights, rivaling the impacts of icons like David Beckham, Zlatan Ibrahimović, Wayne Rooney, and Thierry Henry.

Should the 2026 tournament serve as a suitable conclusion to Messi’s illustrious career, it is almost guaranteed that crowds will flock to see Argentina in action. But can they shine and create a fairytale ending for someone widely regarded as the greatest to ever grace the game?

As anticipated, the captain and no. 10 is leading Argentina’s qualifying efforts, netting six goals and providing three assists, both impressive stats, despite participating in just nine matches.

What’s encouraging is that their 21 total goals have come from a diverse range of contributors, with eight different players—frontmen Lautaro Martínez and Julián Álvarez among them—finding the back of the net.

What stands out in Argentina’s qualifying journey is not only the number of goals scored—four more than any of the 10 teams in their group—but their impressive shot conversion rate.

For instance, Messi’s shot accuracy of 65.2% leads the group, while Lautaro boasts a commendable 50% conversion rate. Álvarez also ranks well with 46.7%.

These statistics indicate that Argentina’s forwards are efficient with their goal-scoring attempts, and if they can improve accuracy across the board, more shots could translate into goals.

Another area of growth for the national team has been their passing. Nicolás Otamendi leads in total passes during qualifying with an astounding 950, achieving a completion rate of 91.2%. Cristian Romero follows with 637 passes at an accuracy of 92.6%, and Nicolás Tagliafico completes 515 passes with an 87.2% success rate, showcasing a solid defensive structure that other players can build upon.

Midfield domination has also become a hallmark of Argentina’s play, with Enzo Fernández racking up 896 passes at 89.6% accuracy, just ahead of Rodrigo De Paul’s 869 passes (87.6%) and Alexis Mac Allister’s 505 (89.9%).

Notably, only two players have recorded pass accuracy below 80%, with Messi contributing 416 passes at an 80.5% success rate—a reasonable figure given his heavy influence throughout the game.

Argentina Must Explore Alternative Strategies

However, there are areas where La Albiceleste must improve, particularly in winning duels against opponents and retaining possession of the ball.

While they are willing to engage physically when needed, Argentina has found it challenging to come out on top in one-on-one encounters recently, illustrated by their low total of just 12 yellow cards during qualifying.

Only German Pezzella and Lautaro have managed a tackling success rate over 70%. With all other teams keen to disrupt Argentina’s rhythm and challenge their gameplay, Lionel Scaloni and his coaching staff need to instil an understanding that while skilled passing combinations are essential, a pragmatic approach is occasionally required to secure victory—always within the rules, of course.

In terms of possession, Messi, De Paul, Álvarez, and Fernández have each lost the ball over 100 times during qualification. If this number doesn’t reduce significantly, it could spell disaster for them in the World Cup.

Nonetheless, with Messi showcasing an expected goals (xG) figure of 4.27 and his teammates eager to support him at every turn, it will take an extraordinary team to halt Argentina from extending their golden era a little further.