Opta Forecasts Eredivisie Title Battle: Ajax Positioned as Strong Favourite, Critical Showdown with PSV Ahead.

As the Eredivisie season approaches its climax, this weekend could usher in a pivotal shift in the title race.

PSV, currently in second place, will take on leaders Ajax in what is undoubtedly the marquee match of the Eredivisie calendar. Ajax sits atop the table, enjoying a 6-point advantage over PSV, and the 36-time champions could either see their lead cut in half with a defeat in Eindhoven or stretch it to a remarkable 9 points with a win.

What implications would a result in Eindhoven hold for Ajax’s aspirations of clinching their first title since Erik ten Hag’s departure in 2022? Opta has assessed the title prospects for both Ajax and PSV based on various potential outcomes.

Ajax Victory

Ajax’s 3-2 triumph against PSV in October marked their first victory over their rivals since January 2022, when they secured a 2-1 win courtesy of goals from Brian Brobbey and Noussair Mazraoui.

The Godenzonen will be eager to replicate this success in Eindhoven, as Opta has calculated that should they emerge victorious on Sunday, Ajax’s chance of winning the Eredivisie increases to a compelling 97%.

Stalemate

In a press conference on Friday, PSV manager Peter Bosz remarked that a draw would do little for their title ambitions, whereas Ajax’s coach, Francesco Farioli, emphasized that “the pressure is definitely not on Ajax.”

Opta corroborated Bosz’s concerns, indicating that a draw would leave PSV with only a 13% chance of securing the Eredivisie title.

PSV Triumph

“We have a responsibility to win. This is a match we should claim in front of our home crowd. If we do, we will put considerable pressure on Ajax,” Bosz stated on Friday. PSV’s sharp decline in form has seen them relinquish the top spot and slip as far as 8 points behind in just two months.

Now is the time for PSV to ramp up the pressure on Ajax. Opta estimates that with a memorable win at home, PSV’s chance of winning the Eredivisie stands at 33.3%.

Pathway to the Championship