Why Liverpool Hold the Upper Hand Ahead of the Upcoming Merseyside Derby Against Everton

Less than two months have passed since their last encounter at Goodison Park, and now Liverpool and Everton prepare to clash again in what promises to be an intense Merseyside derby.

In the earlier match in February, both Abdoulaye Doucoure and Curtis Jones received red cards in the closing moments, which reflects a broader trend for this fixture.

This matchup has historically led to more red cards than any other in Premier League history (25), with Everton alone racking up 17 against Liverpool, the most red cards one team has accumulated against another in the league.

A victory for the Reds could solidify their lead at the top of the Premier League, granting them three points that would extend their advantage over closest challengers Arsenal to 12 points, with only eight matches remaining.

Conversely, a win for the Toffees could elevate them to 13th place, allowing them to leapfrog both Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United in the standings.

Liverpool’s recent dominance at Anfield against Everton

The Reds have emerged triumphant in five of their last six meetings against Everton at Anfield, including a trio of consecutive 2-0 victories in their last Premier League encounters. The last time Liverpool enjoyed a longer winning streak at home in Merseyside derbies was between 1990 and 1994, when they won five in a row.

Everton, on the other hand, will be aiming to avoid defeat in both Premier League matchups against their bitter rivals for the first time since the 2020/21 season. That year, the initial encounter ended in a 2-2 draw at Goodison, only for Everton to silence Anfield in the return leg with a 2-0 victory.

That loss marked Liverpool’s only defeat against Everton at Anfield in their last 24 Premier League derby encounters there (W14 D9), with the home side winning five of the last six clashes.

Since the first Merseyside derby of the season, David Moyes’ side has recorded four draws and only one win (overall 13 draws in 2024/25), leading some to label them as draw specialists.

This notion is further supported by the fact that 26 of the 65 Premier League encounters between Everton and Liverpool ended in draws; only the rivalry between Chelsea and Manchester United has seen more stalemates (27 times).

Jordan Pickford and his defensive unit will need to remain vigilant, as Liverpool has hit the back of the net at least twice in 26 of their 29 Premier League outings this season, including their last nine matches and 12 consecutive games at Anfield.

Should they manage to score twice again, they would become the first team in top-flight history to net two or more goals in 27 of their opening 30 matches in a season—coincidentally, the current record is held by Everton from their 1894-95 season (26 goals).

Toffees fans might find some solace in the unbeaten run of their side, who have avoided defeat in their last nine Premier League games (W4 D5). The last time they went a longer stretch without a loss was in December 2013, under Roberto Martinez (10 matches).

This is also their longest unbeaten streak leading into a league fixture against Liverpool since February 2010 (also nine games), when they were narrowly defeated 1-0 at Anfield under David Moyes.

However, Moyes has yet to clinch a victory in any of his 19 Premier League away matches against Liverpool. This places him in a tie for the most encounters by any manager without a win in the competition, matched only by his 19 visits to Stamford Bridge. As Everton manager, he has drawn six of his 11 league visits to Anfield (L5), including the most recent one in May 2013, which ended in a 0-0 stalemate.

Mohamed Salah is expected to play a pivotal role, having been directly involved in eight goals during his last seven Premier League Merseyside derbies (6 goals, 2 assists).

The Egyptian King both scored and assisted in the previous fixture this season, and the exclusive players to have both scored and assisted against Everton in both Premier League matches in a single season are Chris Sutton (1993/94) and Alan Shearer (1994/95).

Having netted 27 goals and provided 17 assists this season, Salah far outstrips his teammates in attacking contribution. He will likely rely on support from players like Cody Gakpo (8 goals) and Darwin Nunez (5 goals) to chip in on Wednesday night.

While Liverpool’s No.11 shoulders the attacking pressure magnificently, it serves as a reminder of the uncertainties that may loom from the 2025/26 season onward should he decide to follow the financial allure of the Saudi Pro League or elsewhere.

Trent Alexander-Arnold’s six assists this campaign place him second in the league; however, his injury will keep him sidelined for this clash, while potential substitute Conor Bradley has only a 25% chance of featuring.

Everton counting on joint top-scorer Beto to lead the attack

For the visiting side, Iliman Ndiaye (6 goals) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (3 goals) are both certain absentees, thus placing the goal-scoring burden on Beto, who has scored six times and opened the scoring during the earlier clash at Goodison.

Everton has struggled with their passing accuracy, and while Liverpool will likely dominate possession, when Moyes’ side gets their opportunities, they must ensure that their passes are clean and precise—something they’ve often struggled with this season.

Few players have achieved pass completion rates in the 80% range, with most hovering around the 70% mark and certain players (including Pickford and Beto) sinking as low as 60%. Against top teams, such statistics are inadequate, especially with the pressures of performing at a lively Anfield, particularly when Liverpool are attacking towards The Kop.

Despite their reputation for resilience, Everton are currently struggling in that aspect as well. Only four players in the squad have managed to win 60% or more of their duels with direct opponents.

In terms of successful tackles throughout the season, only Idrissa Gueye (66) and James Tarkowski (37) have retrieved the ball more than 30 times.

Tarkowski’s dramatic equaliser in the previous fixture against Liverpool encapsulated the thrilling nature of the derby, and he will be eager to play an equally pivotal role to help secure Everton’s Premier League status.