Why the Carabao Cup Final Featuring Liverpool and Newcastle Has the Potential to Be a Thrilling Clash

The first significant trophy of the English domestic season will be on offer this Sunday as Liverpool and Newcastle United prepare to clash at Wembley Stadium for the Carabao Cup final.

Both teams are known for their attacking football, which suggests this could be one of the most exhilarating and open finals in recent memory at the historical venue. Newcastle will be aiming to break their finals hoodoo, having lost in both of their prior Carabao Cup final appearances in 1976 against Manchester City and 2023 against Manchester United.

Standing in their way is a powerful Liverpool side that appears even stronger under the management of Arne Slot compared to the Jurgen Klopp era.

This final marks the 15th League Cup final for the Reds, outpacing any other team by five appearances, and they hold the record for the most victories, having claimed the trophy 10 times—two more than their nearest competitors.

A victory for Liverpool would see them equal Manchester United’s record of 19 domestic trophies (excluding league titles).

Eddie Howe is aware of the challenging odds before his side, as Newcastle have not won in their last 17 encounters with Liverpool across all competitions (5 draws, 12 losses—all in the Premier League). The team also carries the heavy historical burden of past failures and the urgent desire for silverware.

The last time Newcastle clinched a major domestic trophy was in the 1955 FA Cup final, where they triumphed 3-1 over Manchester City at Wembley.

Since that victory, they have suffered five defeats in major cup finals (twice in the League Cup and three times in the FA Cup), including a loss to Liverpool in the 1974 FA Cup final.

To add perspective to their misfortune, Newcastle won their first five Wembley outings in FA Cup finals from 1924 to 1955, but they have since suffered a dismal nine-game losing streak at the venue—the longest such streak by any club.

Despite these historical challenges, Howe can take solace from his impressive personal record in the League Cup, having secured 12 wins from 16 matches with Newcastle (75%), the best winning percentage of any manager who has overseen more than one game in the competition for the club.

With his victory, he could become the first English manager to secure a major trophy with a Premier League side since Harry Redknapp led Portsmouth to FA Cup glory in 2008.

This will be the fourth final for Dutchman Arne Slot, who has won just one of his previous three finals (against NEC in last season’s KNVB Cup), all of which were decided by a 1-0 scoreline.

Much attention will focus on Mohamed Salah and Alexander Isak, and rightly so. Both forwards are enjoying remarkable seasons, carrying the ambitions of their respective supporters.

Salah has had a hand in four goals across his last five League Cup matches (3 goals and 1 assist) but has only netted once in seven appearances at Wembley for Liverpool. Surprisingly, his shot conversion rate at the iconic venue (4%, with just one goal from 27 shots) is the lowest among stadiums where he has had 15 or more attempts for the club.

However, he has directly contributed to 18 goals in 16 matches against Newcastle in all competitions, scoring 10 and assisting 8.

Cody Gakpo has also been impressive, netting nine times in 11 outings since his League Cup debut in September 2023—this is five more than any other Liverpool player. Newcastle must be prepared for a multi-faceted attack.

On the other hand, Isak has contributed to four goals in his five clashes against Liverpool (3 goals, 1 assist). Notably, all three of his goals have either given Newcastle a 1-0 lead (twice) or levelled the scores (once), indicating a likely aggressive start from the Magpies aiming to seize an early lead.

Newcastle will be without Anthony Gordon, who is serving a suspension following a late red card in their latest FA Cup encounter against Brighton.

With Gordon’s international teammate, Trent Alexander-Arnold, also sidelined due to an injury sustained during the Champions League match against Paris Saint-Germain, Newcastle may lament missing Gordon’s attacking threat on the right flank against Liverpool.

In this season’s League Cup, Gordon has made the joint-most appearances for Newcastle, sharing the lead for goals scored (2) and assists (1) during their cup run. With 372 minutes played, he falls just short of Isak, who has played the most minutes at 382.

His absence may prove pivotal, much like Nick Pope’s absence was in 2023, where he was suspended for the final after receiving a red card against Liverpool.

Newcastle will also miss Sven Botman and Lewis Hall due to injuries. Losing both first-choice players on the left flank—Hall and Gordon—could be a significant blow from which the Magpies may struggle to recover.

Hall’s passing accuracy of 77.8% ranks second among Newcastle players who have made at least five passes in the competition this season, only bettered by Joelinton (87.5%). This puts added pressure on right-back Tino Livramento, who is expected to fill in on the left this Sunday.

Livramento and Dan Burn were both selected in Thomas Tuchel’s first England squad, with Burn potentially earning his first cap at the age of 32 if he features in either of the forthcoming matches against Albania and Latvia. Both players will aspire to finish the week on a high note with a victory at Wembley.

One crucial matchup to watch will occur in midfield, with Sandro Tonali going toe-to-toe with Ryan Gravenberch. The team that can assert dominance in those congested areas is likely to emerge victorious.

As evident from the accompanying head-to-head graphic (focusing on Premier League contests), Gravenberch surpasses Tonali in most statistical facets.

Both players are known for their tenacity, with each averaging almost one tackle per match, but Tonali, who tends to push forward for Newcastle, has only completed about half of the successful dribbles compared to Gravenberch.

Gravenberch leads in terms of key passes, but Tonali has more than double the shots on target.

This Sunday, Newcastle must unleash a barrage of shots from every angle, as Liverpool possess the ability to score freely. The Reds have netted 69 goals in the Premier League—22 more than Newcastle’s 47. Interestingly, Newcastle has scored 11 goals on their path to Wembley, just shy of Liverpool’s 14, indicating that we could be in for a thrilling final. Game on!