Why Newcastle’s Recent Track Record Boosts Their Top Three Ambitions, While Palace Could Still Make an Impact

Though a midweek Premier League clash at St. James’ Park between Newcastle United and Crystal Palace doesn’t typically draw too much attention, the recent demolition of Manchester United by the Magpies has significantly bolstered their Champions League ambitions.

A victory against the Eagles would propel Newcastle to third in the Premier League, trailing Arsenal by just four points, with their European fate firmly in their control as they approach the final six matches, which include a showdown with the Gunners.

Historically, the odds seem to favour the hosts; Newcastle has managed to keep a clean sheet in six of their last eight Premier League home encounters against Crystal Palace, including three consecutive matches.

Moreover, the South London side has won only once in their last seven league meetings with Newcastle (D4, L2), the solitary win being a 2-0 victory at Selhurst Park in April last year.

The situation grows a bit perilous for the visitors, as since 14 December 2024, Eddie Howe’s men have recorded more victories in all competitions than any other Premier League team, winning 18 of their last 23 outings.

Midweek Matches Favour Newcastle

Newcastle has found the back of the net 53 times during this period, trailing only Liverpool (61) and Manchester City (58). They’ve lost just once in their last 12 home Premier League games played midweek (W8, D3), with that defeat being a 3-1 loss to Nottingham Forest on Boxing Day 2023.

Midweek fixtures have proven particularly fruitful for the Magpies lately, as they’ve triumphed in five of their last six Wednesday league matches at St. James’ Park, with the other match ending in a draw.

However, there’s some optimism for Oliver Glasner’s squad. Crystal Palace have found the net in each of their last 13 Premier League fixtures. Also, Eddie Howe has only managed five wins in 21 matches against Crystal Palace across all competitions (D9, L7), giving him a win ratio of just 24%. Among the teams he has faced over ten times, only Manchester City (5%), Liverpool (9%), and Watford (16%) yield worse results for him.

Unfortunately, he won’t be on the sidelines for this match, as he continues to recover in hospital from pneumonia, though he’s likely been in contact with assistant Jason Tindall from his bed, as Newcastle remains very much Howe’s team.

The November Draw Remains Relevant

The last encounter between these sides in November ended in a 1-1 draw at Selhurst Park — significant for its lack of decisive action rather than any standout moments.

In most respects, both teams neutralised each other’s threats. Palace took eight corners, only slightly fewer than Newcastle, with both sides caught offside twice and each receiving three yellow cards.

Fouls were evenly matched, with the visitors committing 11 and the hosts 12; Newcastle enjoyed a slight edge in passing accuracy at 80% compared to Palace’s 79%; possession was closely split at 52% to 48%; and Newcastle’s total of 402 passes was only narrowly below Palace’s 418.

The major differential lay in the attacking department. The Eagles attempted 16 shots total, four of which were on target, while Newcastle managed only one off-target shot, with their goal resulting from an unfortunate own goal by Palace’s Marc Guehi, who has been frequently mentioned in transfer speculation linked to Tyneside.

To further illustrate the surprising nature of the 90 minutes, it marked only the eighth occurrence in the Premier League (since the 2003/04 season) of a team registering one or fewer shots and still managing to avoid defeat.

Close Form Rivalry Ahead of Midweek Clash

Analysis of current form shows a remarkably close contest leading up to Wednesday’s match. Crystal Palace has lost only three of their last 12 competitive matches, securing one draw and eight wins. Meanwhile, Newcastle has lost four out of their last 12 but clinched eight victories, having not drawn any since a 3-3 stalemate against Liverpool on December 4 last year — a match that coincidentally followed their earlier draw at Selhurst Park.

Newcastle may indeed have the upper hand with a roster filled with players capable of changing a game’s dynamic. Harvey Barnes, for instance, has emerged as a key contributor, registering nine goal involvements in his last 11 starts (seven goals, two assists), including at least one goal in each of his previous five matches (four goals, two assists). Jacob Murphy has also been lucrative, contributing seven goals and eight assists in 17 recent Premier League matches.

The likes of Alexander Isak, Sandro Tonali, Joelinton, and Bruno Guimaraes are performing exceptionally well, riding high after clinching the Carabao Cup earlier this season.

Eberechi Eze as Key Player for Crystal Palace

Whilst Crystal Palace boasts a solid squad, they often look to England midfield maestrо Eberechi Eze for that bit of brilliance to ignite their attacking play.

With two goals and six assists in his last 11 Premier League outings, Eze has been instrumental. His tally of 89 shots this season is the highest for any Palace player in a single campaign since Christian Benteke logged 105 in 2016/17.

The fact that Eze and his Palace teammates have little more than pride at stake makes them an unpredictable threat for a Newcastle side that has shown they are keen to reclaim their spot among Europe’s elite clubs following a year out of the Champions League.