‘They have the potential to shine’: Phil Gould supports NSW for a ‘comfortable’ decider victory, but expresses significant concerns for the Blues.

Phil Gould has predicted that NSW will triumph in the State of Origin decider “comfortably”, but balanced his forecast with a cautionary note, acknowledging that history indicates the Blues often “get nervous” and can “unravel”.

Under the leadership of star five-eighth and newly appointed captain Cameron Munster, Queensland is strategising to seize the Origin shield from NSW in their own backyard next Wednesday night.

Despite being labelled as underdogs by the bookmakers for the third time in the series, recent events from 1995 and 2020 serve as stern reminders that dismissing any Queensland team is a mistake.

NSW coach Laurie Daley has shown confidence in the squad that fell short in game two, losing 26-24 in Perth, by announcing an unchanged 17-man lineup on Sunday night.

“The coach has remained loyal to the squad, and they must ensure a better start this time around. If they can do that on home soil, I believe they’ll prove too strong,” Gould stated on Nine’s 100% Footy on Monday evening.

“That said, I have immense respect for the momentum Queensland are building and their capacity to induce nerves in NSW. Historically, NSW has demonstrated they can falter under pressure, allowing Queensland to exploit that — it’s a critical psychological edge for them.”

Catch the 2025 State of Origin series live and free on Nine and 9Now.

For the final, Queensland coach Billy Slater has made two modifications to his lineup.

He has shifted Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to fullback, filling in for the injured Kalyn Ponga, and has made the surprising choice to include rugby league veteran Gehamat Shibasaki in the centre.

Another change sees the return of inspirational prop Josh Papali’i, who is coming out of Origin retirement to replace Moeaki Fotuaika.

“Given their current momentum, even after an upset win in game two, they remain the outsiders for game three. There’s an underlying tension because they are quite capable of pulling off an upset,” Gould elaborated.

“Origin is built on their [Queensland’s] tenacity and faith, and their ability to apply relentless pressure on NSW, which often leads to NSW falling apart in crucial moments. Talent alone won’t secure a win for NSW, and history attests to that.”

Slater aims to guide the Maroons to a third series triumph in just four years, following successful campaigns in 2022 and 2023.

“I do believe NSW will win comfortably, but I hold a deep respect for the historical significance of Origin and what this Queensland team is showing,” Gould concluded. “They can certainly also induce nerves in NSW, and we’ve seen in the past that they can crack.”