The Stats that Define Arsenal’s Champions League Challenge Against Paris Saint-Germain

After a commanding victory over last season’s Champions League victors, Real Madrid, Arsenal has earned a two-legged semi-final matchup against Paris Saint-Germain, who previously eliminated another tournament favourite, Liverpool.

Fans can expect an electric atmosphere reminiscent of when the Gunners delivered a 3-1 defeat to Los Blancos at the Emirates Stadium.

The matches between the Ligue 1 champions and the newly crowned Premier League victors have been among the most thrilling of recent years, promising an exhilarating experience for football enthusiasts.

Luis Enrique’s squad has cruised to the top of the domestic league, yet similarly to their robust record against Real Madrid, Arsenal boasts an unbeaten run in their last five encounters with PSG (W2 D3).

European History with PSG

This upcoming contest marks the sixth European clash between these two clubs, with Arsenal being the side PSG has faced most frequently without ever securing a win.

Mikel Arteta will be bolstered by the fact that his team previously triumphed over PSG in the Champions League, winning 2-0 in last October’s group stage match at home.

Currently, Manchester City is the sole English team to have defeated PSG twice in a single Champions League edition, accomplishing the feat during the 2020/21 semi-finals (2-1 away, 2-0 at home).

Furthermore, PSG’s record against English clubs has been less than stellar, with five defeats in their last six away matches in the Champions League (losses to Manchester City x2, Arsenal, Newcastle, and Aston Villa).

Arsenal Must Tread Carefully Against PSG’s Attack

While Arsenal remains undefeated in their last eight Champions League matches (W7 D1) and has spent 53% of their playing time in the lead—the highest of any team—PSG has showcased four players averaging more than two completed dribbles per 90 minutes this season (Doue 3.1, Kvaratskhelia 2.7, Barcola 2.6, and Dembele 2.2), the most of any single team with over 300 minutes played.

Additionally, PSG’s tally of 190 completed dribbles is the highest in a single Champions League season since Barcelona in 2014/15 (238)—a squad that was also coached by Luis Enrique.

Both teams feature key players capable of significantly influencing the outcome of these matches across both legs.

In the last two seasons, Bukayo Saka has recorded nine goals and six assists in 16 Champions League appearances for Arsenal, representing the highest number of goal involvements for an English player in their first two seasons of the competition.

On the other hand, Ousmane Dembele has directly contributed to 10 UCL goals this season (seven goals, three assists), potentially matching the record for most goal involvements by a PSG player in a single edition, currently held by Kylian Mbappe (11 in 2020/21 – eight goals, three assists).

Nice’s Strategy: A Template for Defeating PSG

This encounter is also notable as it represents the third instance where two Spanish managerial tacticians go head-to-head in a UCL semi-final, following Carles Rexach vs. Vicente del Bosque in 2001/02 and Pep Guardiola vs. Luis Enrique in 2014/15.

While Enrique may not be overly concerned with historical precedents, the recent 3-1 home defeat to Nice, which ended PSG’s hopes of an unbeaten domestic season, might cause some anxiety.

During that match, Nice converted all three of their shots on target while maintaining a mere 24% possession for the full 90 minutes. Their effective game management against a dominant opponent that registered 13 shots on target from 32 attempts was impressive.

This strategy may starkly contrast with Arteta’s usual aggressive approach, as he will likely anticipate his team adopting a more proactive and offensive stance. However, they risk being caught out by PSG’s swift counterattacks.

A staggering 87% of PSG’s pressures in the Champions League this season have been executed with high intensity, the highest rate of any team. Nullifying midfielder Joao Neves will be crucial for the Gunners to gain an advantage heading into the second leg in France.

Arsenal’s Attackers Need to Capitalise on Chances

Neves leads the tournament in high-intensity pressure applied with a staggering 715, playing a pivotal role in creating opportunities for stars such as Dembele, Kvaratskhelia, and Doue to exploit. For instance, Dembele’s 14 fast breaks greatly exceed his teammates, with Bradley Barcola being the next closest at five.

To restrict PSG’s incursions into their box, Arsenal must seize opportunities right from the outset and convert when chances arise.

Should Leandro Trossard partake in the first XI, he must significantly raise his shooting accuracy from the current 27.3%, which is far below acceptable levels. Only Gabriel’s 16.7% rate is worse among the Gunners’ squad.

Moreover, if Arsenal opts for a possession-based strategy while attempting to outplay Enrique’s side rather than merely waiting for chances as Nice did, they possess the necessary skill set to execute this effectively.

In Declan Rice, the Gunners have a midfield powerhouse who can control the game and draw defenders towards him, creating space in behind for his teammates. His pass accuracy sits at an impressive 92.2%, narrowly behind Myles Lewis-Skelly’s phenomenal 93%, while the absence of Thomas Partey for the first leg could be significant, as his 90.2% accuracy complements Rice’s playmaking abilities.

With the exception of Gabriel Martinelli, Mikel Merino, and David Raya, the rest of the squad has maintained pass completion rates above 80%, indicating that should they gain enough time on the ball, PSG may struggle to enforce their natural game.

PSG Needs a Tenacious Performance

Arsenal’s recent performances have shown they can compete with the elite and emerge victorious. Provided the occasion doesn’t overwhelm them, Mikel Arteta’s side has a solid chance of entering Parc des Princes with a fighting spirit and a shot at the Champions League final.

If PSG hopes to have a straightforward second leg, they must be aggressive and willing to engage in tactical fouling when necessary.

While it may not align with their strength, considering the majority of their players have less than a 50% duel victory rate, with a final berth on the line, intensity and assertiveness must be non-negotiable.

Boasting the ability to threaten from every position, Luis Enrique will surely expect a more tenacious performance from his players, especially when facing an opponent known for struggling under physical pressure.

Let the battle begin!