How Bayern’s Overconfidence Led to Their Defeat Against Benfica in the Club World Cup

With Bayern Munich already assured of their passage into the knockout rounds of the Club World Cup before facing Benfica at Bank of America Stadium, it was little wonder that Vincent Kompany opted to rest several key players.

Among those on the bench were Michael Olise and Jamal Musiala, both of whom were competing for the tournament’s top scorer title, having each netted three times.

The last encounter between these two sides took place in the 2024/25 Champions League, where Bayern narrowly triumphed with a 1-0 victory.

This time around, it was Benfica who made a bright start, with Angel Di Maria and Renato Sanches both forcing early saves from Bayern keeper before Andreas Schjelderup broke the deadlock in the 13th minute—a tough moment for the Bavarians.

Despite dominating possession at 78.2% leading up to the half-hour mark, Bayern didn’t get their first shot in until the 23rd minute when Tom Bischof’s attempt was deflected away.

Bayern fail to register a shot on target before half-time

As the half progressed, Benfica continued to exert pressure, with Di Maria taking his shot—his tenth of the tournament, equalling the tournament high—while Bayern still lacked a shot on target by the time the referee blew for half-time.

In response, Kompany made significant changes at the break, introducing Harry Kane, Olise, and Joshua Kimmich to replace Serge Gnabry, Joao Palhinha, and Bischof.

Just five minutes into the second half, Bayern finally registered their first shots on target through Leroy Sane and Thomas Muller, yet still couldn’t breach a sturdy Benfica defence.

With 75.9% possession, Bayern dominated the match statistically, but Benfica remained resolute, weathering the storm even as Sane kept firing attempts their way.

In fact, Sane’s five shots were the most of any Bayern player in the tournament.

Match insights reveal key moments

A deeper examination of the match highlights where it was ultimately decided. Despite firing off nearly double the total attempts over the match (13 compared to 7), Bayern managed to hit the target only four times, matching Benfica—a clear indicator of their inefficiency on the day.

Notably, eight of Bayern’s 13 efforts came from inside the box, which underscores their inability to convert opportunities.

Despite leading in possession at 73% compared to Benfica’s 27%, as well as attempting 687 passes to the Portuguese side’s 257, Bayern’s command of the match failed to translate into goals. Benfica, on the other hand, capitalised on their chances effectively.

While Bayern completed 18 dribbles, Benfica’s successful completion rate was higher (47% compared to 38.9%), and they also claimed victory in a greater share of one-on-one duels (57.1% to 42.9%) and aerial challenges (61.5% to 38.5%).

Standout performances from Benfica’s defence

Benfica’s dominance in tackles and interceptions showed Bayern’s lack of urgency, a concerning sign as they progress through the tournament.

Notably, captain Nicolas Otamendi and defender Samuel Dahl excelled in thwarting Bayern’s attacks. Kompany may begrudgingly admit that his former teammate emerged as the standout performer, as he was eager to impress in this encounter.

The Argentine completed eight of his nine one-on-one challenges and won both aerial duels, while Dahl’s prowess in regaining possession on ten occasions set a high standard for the match.

In stark contrast, Sane and Muller losing the ball 17 and 16 times, respectively, serves as a glaring statistic that could provide insight going forward into a challenging weekend.

Bayern’s lack of seriousness on the pitch

Aside from Muller’s disappointing 54.2% pass completion rate, most of Bayern’s squad boasted figures exceeding 90%. For instance, Dayot Upamecano achieved an impressive 97.4% by successfully completing 74 of 76 passes, which should have positioned Bayern for a comfortable victory.

Bayern’s 35 touches in the Benfica box dwarfed the Portuguese side’s 11, yet yielded no goals—a glaring miss.

It is impossible to overlook the idea that, with prior knowledge of their qualification and a recent victory over Benfica, Bayern may not have treated this match with the seriousness it warranted.

While Kompany aimed to reserve his star players for the latter stages, to command a game as they did yet still lose with only four attempts on goal suggests that certain Bayern players weren’t fully committed, and this level of apathy is unacceptable.

Thanks to Benfica’s triumph, they will face Chelsea in the Round of 16, while Bayern draws Brazilian powerhouses Flamengo.