How a Single Match Could Determine a $1.27 Million Prize, a Top Six Finish, and the Golden Boot: Stakes for the Final Round

Round 29 Fixtures

Friday, May 1

• Wellington Phoenix (11th) vs Perth Glory (13th)
• Central Coast Mariners (10th) vs Brisbane Roar (12th)

Saturday, May 2

• Melbourne City (2nd) vs Sydney FC (7th)
• Western United (3rd) vs Auckland FC (1st)
• Macarthur Bulls (8th) vs Western Sydney Wanderers (4th)

Sunday, May 3

• Melbourne Victory (5th) vs Newcastle Jets (9th)

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One match may determine everything in the race for 2nd and 6th

Got plans this Saturday? You might want to reconsider!

Make your way to AAMI Park, or if you’re not in Melbourne, settle in at home and watch as second-placed Melbourne City takes on seventh-placed Sydney FC in a thrilling final-round skirmish.

City must defeat Sydney to secure their second-place finish, guaranteeing them a Semi-Final spot and a place in the 2024-25 AFC Asian Champions League Elite.

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On the flip side, Sydney needs at least a point to leapfrog Adelaide United and sneak into the top six. A loss to City would cut short Sydney’s 2024-25 Isuzu UTE A-League season, solidifying Adelaide’s spot in the Finals Series.

While Sydney’s outcome directly affects only one team’s chances of making the top six, a win for City this Saturday would have repercussions for three clubs competing for second place.

Currently, City leads by one point over third-placed Western United as we approach Round 29. However, both Western Sydney Wanderers and Melbourne Victory are trailing just three points behind City. None of the four teams are squaring off against each other this weekend, leaving all four still in contention for a possible second-place finish.

A draw between City and Sydney would see City gain two points on Western United while moving three points ahead of the Wanderers. If Western United triumphs over league leaders Auckland FC on Saturday, they’ll secure second place.

However, should both Western United and Melbourne City fail to win, it would open the door for the Wanderers to swoop in and seize second spot.

A City draw against Sydney coupled with a Wanderers victory over Macarthur would leave both teams level on points, though Western Sydney would have the edge due to superior goal difference.

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In the most improbable of scenarios for the chase of second, Melbourne Victory could rise significantly on the table if the following results occur:

• Victory defeats Newcastle and City falls to Sydney, switching the goal difference in Victory’s favour
• Western United is defeated by Auckland
• Western Sydney Wanderers drop points against Macarthur

If that highly unlikely scenario unfolds, Victory would conclude the regular season on 45 points and achieve a better goal difference than City, pulling off an astonishing late-season surge.

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Finishing in second place is a significant advantage under the current Finals Series format. The top two teams receive a bye during the opening week of the Finals and advance directly into the two-legged Semi-Finals against the winners of the Elimination Finals for a chance at the Championship.

Additionally, this season, there’s the enticing incentive of direct qualification for the 2024-25 ACL Elite for whoever finishes second. This accolade, typically available to the A-League Premiers, cannot be attained by Auckland FC due to their ineligibility for AFC competitions.

Qualifying for the AFC Champions League Elite in 2024-25 will net teams USD $800,000 (AUD $1.27 million).

“Securing second place is crucial,” remarked former Melbourne City goalkeeper Thomas Sorensen in this week’s episode of A-Leagues Download.

“You obviously want that bye; it gives you an edge. But the Champions League spot could bring significant financial benefits to the club. It ensures a level of financial stability which allows for more aggressive recruitment next season… it could change the entire outlook for the club.”

“For Melbourne City, this would be monumental, but it’s equally important for clubs like Western Sydney and Western United who’ll be vying for the opportunity. They will be hoping for a slip-up from City against Sydney.”

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Sydney FC’s misstep creates a dramatic finale for sixth place

With Adelaide United dropping points against Melbourne City in their final regular season match, the task for Sydney FC became straightforward: secure a point from their last two games to secure a Finals Series berth.

However, a loss to Western United has made Sydney’s road to the finals much more complicated; they now must clinch at least a point against a City side determined to finish second.

Suddenly, Carl Veart’s Adelaide United do not seem as defeated as they appeared after concluding their goalless draw against City in Round 28.

The Reds enjoy a bye in this final round, making for a tense watch as Veart and his team brace for the weekend’s action.

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When discussing Sydney’s chances of securing a point against City, Sorensen and fellow A-Leagues Download panellist Archie Thompson raised concerns about whether the “disjointed” Sky Blues can muster the cohesive performance necessary.

“You do worry for them,” noted Sorensen on A-Leagues Download.

“They are heading to Melbourne City, a side with significant goals in sight. They’re aiming for the Champions League next week. It would not be surprising at all if Adelaide ultimately sneaks in because Sydney concedes too many goals.”

“There’s a lack of fluidity in their play,” Thompson added. “You have to wonder where they will find that extra gear, even though we’re aware of their capabilities, particularly against a Melbourne City eager to secure that number two spot.”

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Golden Boot race poised for an exhilarating finish

As we enter the final round, Archie Goodwin and Adrian Segecic are locked in a tie for the Golden Boot honours, but two young Australian forwards are hot on their heels.

Goodwin suffered a hamstring injury just 30 minutes into Adelaide’s last match of the season, preventing him from adding to his 13 goals. Consequently, the best he can achieve now is a share of the Golden Boot.

GOLDEN BOOT RACE EXPLAINED: Current standings heading into the final round

Sydney FC’s Segecic is also tied with 13 goals and has the potential to score this weekend against Melbourne City, which could simultaneously push Sydney up the table while thwarting Goodwin’s chances of the Golden Boot—an especially cruel twist for the young Adelaide striker.

It’s also possible that neither Segecic nor Goodwin takes home the Golden Boot, as in-form Nicolas Milanovic is lurking just one goal behind and is quite capable of scoring multiple times against Macarthur Bulls.

Western United’s Noah Botic, sitting with 11 goals, has hit a dry spell recently, experiencing a four-match goalless run after a prolific stretch where he netted eight goals in nine matches.

Botic’s match against Auckland this weekend could be fortuitous if the recently-crowned Premiers are still celebrating and perhaps lower their performance level, enabling him to get the two goals necessary to enter the Golden Boot race.