Genius or Fool? The High-Stakes Selection Risks Testing Billy Slater’s Coaching Legacy in State of Origin

By 11pm next Wednesday, Billy Slater’s legacy as a rugby league coach may be firmly established.

The Queensland icon could wake up on Thursday regarded as a mastermind or as a reckless individual who took one gamble too many with his State of Origin selections.

The outcome of Origin III in Sydney will dictate the newspaper headlines.

This year, Slater has already taken several significant risks after experiencing a devastating loss in the 2024 series finale to a resilient New South Wales team at Suncorp Stadium.

This defeat appeared to prompt Slater to abandon conventional strategies and take bold risks.

His first unexpected move was to hand 10-game NRL rookie Robert Toia a debut in the centres, matching up against none other than Latrell Mitchell.

While Mitchell managed to send a couple of impressive passes to enable his winger Brian To’o to score, the dominating Blues centre was unable to find the try line himself in the opening two games and was largely subdued.

In the first game, Toia made an impressive 24 tackles as the Blues targeted his side. In the second game, he recorded 20 tackles.

In contrast, Queensland’s left centre made a mere 10 tackles across both initial matches in this series.

A resounding tick of approval for Slater’s initial leap of faith.

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Following the loss in the series opener in Brisbane, Slater stunned the rugby league community by dropping his captain and halfback, Daly Cherry-Evans.

This marked the first time in almost three decades that an Origin coach had removed a captain mid-series, and the choice of replacement raised a few eyebrows.

Cameron Munster was bestowed the captaincy, despite the availability of established club leaders like Harry Grant and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, even with his notorious history of off-field antics.

Ultimately, it proved to be a masterstroke. Munster was among the standout players as his Maroons prevailed over the Blues in game two, levelling the series in Perth.

While the lopsided penalty count certainly favoured Queensland, they made the most of the opportunities handed to them by referee Ashley Klein.

Slater also faced calls to alter the starting line-up prior to kick-off but remained resolute, opting to retain Grant at hooker while leaving Jeremiah Nanai and Pat Carrigan on the bench.

And on Monday, even after their game two victory, Slater once again turned heads when announcing his Queensland team.

A surprise debut for rugby league veteran Gehamat Shibasaki – who was without an NRL contract mere months ago – and enticing Josh Papali’i out of retirement to feature in the decider on NSW soil.

He also excluded talented fullback Reece Walsh from his squad, despite many assuming he was a certain pick for the No.1 position, opting instead to rejig his backline and select Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow for the job.

In terms of selection risks, Slater’s recent decisions could be regarded as some of the most daring in Origin history. The inclusion of Toia and Shibasaki, the exclusion of Cherry-Evans, and the recall of a 33-year-old prop who had retired from the Maroons years ago highlight this.

In total, he has made up to a dozen crucial decisions that could ultimately shape the series.

“We all know the football gods are Queenslanders – they’ve delivered the rain in Perth and brought big Papa back for Sydney,” former Blues coach Phil Gould commented on 100% Footy this week.

“It’s just their way of stirring things up in Origin and turning the tables once again.”

In contrast, Blues coach Laurie Daley has taken a more cautious route, opting not to make any changes or surprising selections even after their loss in game two. Talk about lacking excitement. What are we meant to write about?

Clearly, the Maroons have only delivered one solid half of football throughout the series so far, with NSW heavily favoured to secure the shield at Accor Stadium next week.

The celebrated fullback has placed all his bets on a victorious outcome. “There is no tomorrow if we lose,” stated Slater’s assistant Josh Hannay prior to game two.

Of course, this places Slater in a position where he could face ridicule and be laughed out of town.

Could consecutive series losses put his contract to coach the Maroons next year at risk? It’s improbable.

However, if Slater can orchestrate a Queensland win on enemy territory, it will be celebrated as one of the finest coaching achievements in the 45-year history of this interstate rivalry.