Bayern Poised to Defeat RB Leipzig and Secure Kane’s First Major Trophy

On Saturday afternoon, Harry Kane could be on the verge of clinching his first career title as Bayern Munich travels to RB Leipzig in search of the crucial points that would render it mathematically impossible for the Bundesliga’s second-placed team, Bayer Leverkusen, to catch up.

However, the England captain and all-time leading goalscorer will unfortunately miss the match due to a suspension following five yellow cards, coming at an inconvenient time.

Kane’s significance to Bayern has been clear, as he has netted a staggering 24 goals in the Bundesliga this season—making him the league’s top scorer.

Bayern’s points per game without Kane starting is just 1.5 this season, in contrast to their 2.6 average when he plays.

Leipzig boasts their own in-form striker, Benjamin Sesko, whose record of eight goals and four assists at home is only surpassed in the Bundesliga by Kane (with 18 goal involvements at the Allianz Arena) and Eintracht Frankfurt’s Hugo Ekitike (14 at Deutsche Bank Park).

Seko has also managed to score in his last two Bundesliga meetings against Bayern.

Remarkable debut season for Olise at Bayern

While Vincent Kompany may be missing his star striker, he’ll still have the remarkable talent of Michael Olise to showcase—a player who has made a significant impact in his inaugural season in Germany.

In fact, Olise’s 12 assists are the highest in the league, and since data tracking began in the 2004/05 season, no new Bayern recruit has ever provided as many assists in a Bundesliga campaign.

No other player has been involved in more goals than Olise during the latter half of the season, tallying 11—equalled only by Serhou Guirassy.

This should raise concerns for Leipzig, who have conceded 90 significant chances against them this season—only VfL Bochum (117) and Holstein Kiel (92) have allowed more.

Meanwhile, Bayern has created 154 major chances—far surpassing everyone else in the league—so Leipzig must turn the tide if they hope to secure a Champions League spot by season’s end.

Leipzig aware of the urgency for a full three points

Zsolt Low, RB Leipzig’s interim manager, knows full well that Borussia Dortmund, Mainz, and Werder Bremen are lurking just three points behind them. With 49 points from 31 matches, this is Leipzig’s second-lowest performance in the Bundesliga.

They have only been in a worse position at this stage in the 2017/18 season (47 points), finishing sixth and failing to qualify for the prestigious European tournament, the only time in their top-flight history.

Therefore, a victory against the likely champions is increasingly essential, although historical statistics aren’t in their favour.

Bayern has only lost once in their past ten competitive outings against Leipzig (W4, D5), that defeat occurring in March 2018 with a score of 2-1 in the Bundesliga. Additionally, the hosts experienced their heaviest Bundesliga loss earlier this season, suffering a 5-1 defeat in Munich.

Furthermore, Bayern has displayed exceptional form throughout the 2024/25 campaign, having lost only two of their first 31 league encounters (W23, D6). The 75 points they’ve amassed is already more than the 72 they recorded in the previous season (2023/24) and is the highest points tally since Carlo Ancelotti in 2016/17.

They have also recorded 14 clean sheets in the Bundesliga, leading the league in that stat, while RB Leipzig stands second with 13 clean sheets.

Expect early goals

If this match is to feature goals, they are likely to come in the first hour, as both clubs have conceded just 12 goals each in the last half hour of matches, the joint lowest in the league.

In this season overall, Bayern has been the most prolific in the final 30 minutes with 35 goals, while Leipzig scored only 10 in that timeframe. Only Bochum has managed fewer goals (eight) in the last half hour of games.

Leipzig’s form has waned noticeably, winning only four of their last 14 matches in this part of the season (D7, L3), which is the fewest victories recorded from their first 14 games in a top-flight season.

In comparison, they achieved twice as many wins in their initial 14 matches in the first half of this season.

For a multitude of reasons, this is a match that Leipzig simply cannot afford to lose, and the unpredictable nature of football adds to the intrigue of the game.

If Bayern were to show any signs of complacency, players like Sesko, Xavi Simons, and Lois Openda could exploit the situation.

While it’s expected that Bayern will emerge victorious, success hinges on their ability to translate their training ground excellence into performance on match day, just like they have done throughout the successful 2024/25 season.