Contract Decisions of Two Superstars Could Trigger AFL Ruck Trade ‘Domino Effect’ Affecting Six Clubs

A significant “domino effect” regarding ruckmen switching clubs is on the horizon in the AFL, with about a third of the league potentially set to be drawn into the upheaval.

This situation originates with two free agents: Tom De Koning from Carlton and Sam Draper of Essendon, both of whom are looking increasingly likely to depart their respective clubs this off-season.

De Koning is expected to join St Kilda on an impressive $1.7 million per season contract, while Draper is attracting interest from both Adelaide and Brisbane.

The implications of these moves could be far-reaching. Reilly O’Brien, the ruckman for Adelaide, is out of contract and could potentially fill the ruck vacancies left by either the Blues or the Bombers.

Essendon has an urgent need for a ruckman, especially since Nick Bryan is recovering from a torn ACL that will keep him off the field until 2026, and Todd Goldstein will be 38 years old by next July.

O’Brien could step in to fill the gap, allowing Bryan to focus on his rehabilitation. Conversely, if Draper remains at Essendon, might another club show interest in Bryan as a potential long-term ruck solution?

Brisbane has wisely secured premiership ruckman Darcy Fort for 2026, but the addition of Draper to partner with Oscar McInerney could lead to Fort reassessing his position.

Fremantle is also in the mix, facing the possibility of splitting their two expensive ruckmen, Luke Jackson and Sean Darcy.

Jackson has been linked with a return to Melbourne, but it seems more likely he will remain at Fremantle, particularly if they decide to part ways with Darcy.

The Dockers have struggled to maximise the potential of both players, as each performs best when playing alone, and Darcy’s persistent injuries raise concerns, especially as his contract runs through to 2030.

This scenario might allow clubs like the Blues or Bombers to snatch up Darcy at a lower price, considering the financial implications involved. Reports indicate that Essendon is interested.

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Geelong is another side to keep an eye on as Rhys Stanley may retire at the end of the season, leaving them with a ruck gap of their own.

They’ve been linked to St Kilda’s Rowan Marshall, should he seek a move following De Koning’s arrival.

Marshall possesses enough forward skills to make such a partnership viable, but it’s hard to envisage them wanting to split ruck time. De Koning, on the other hand, has yet to find his footing as a forward, despite numerous attempts.

Essendon legend Matthew Lloyd is intrigued by the potential outcomes of the trade period.

“There are many at Essendon who fear that Sam Draper might be on the move this off-season,” Lloyd remarked on Nine’s Footy Classified.

“I examine the ruckmen in the competition, and I see a domino effect at play.

“If Tom De Koning heads to St Kilda, Carlton can’t rely on Marc Pittonet as their sole ruckman, and if Sam Draper goes, Essendon can’t depend on Todd Goldstein, who is likely to retire. Nick Bryan has also torn his ACL, and Vigo Visentini is still too inexperienced.

“Could O’Brien seek a new opportunity? If De Koning arrives, will Marshall want to explore his options?

“There’s a genuine issue at the AFL level where one ruckman is innately talented while the other has to sit idly by. This is precisely why players switch clubs frequently.

“If I were Fremantle, I would be concerned; you can’t have Sean Darcy, a high-paid number two ruckman. That’s something they need to consider.”

Meanwhile, it seems that Collingwood’s Darcy Cameron will remain at the club, having reportedly agreed to a long-term deal, turning down interest from West Coast.

The Eagles do have promising young ruckmen in Archer Reid and Harry Barnett but have been leaning on Matt Flynn, who has faced challenges at times, and Bailey Williams, who has predominantly played as a forward in recent seasons.

Apart from the main ruck options, several depth players around the league could be tempted by the prospect of an increased opportunity at AFL level.

Hawthorn has successfully fetched Fremantle’s Lloyd Meek in the past, converting him from a depth player into a starting ruckman.

If Carlton, Geelong, West Coast, and Essendon urgently require a ruckman, there are numerous alternative options available, potentially at a more economical price.

Fort at Brisbane is a prime candidate, but additional ruckmen like Liam Reidy (Fremantle), Ned Moyle (Gold Coast), Nicholas Madden (GWS), Ned Reeves (Hawthorn), Ivan Soldo (Port Adelaide), and Peter Ladhams (Sydney) could also be on the radar.

The Blues, in particular, might benefit from considering more affordable alternatives, given their limited salary cap flexibility.

Carlton boasts a promising 20-year-old ruckman in Hudson O’Keeffe and will likely seek a player who can temporarily fill the gap until he is ready for consistent game time.

Possible scenarios:

• St Kilda acquires Tom De Koning, loses Rowan Marshall
• Geelong secures Rowan Marshall, as Rhys Stanley retires
• Adelaide signs Sam Draper, losing Reilly O’Brien
• Essendon gets Sean Darcy, losing Sam Draper
• Carlton signs Reilly O’Brien, losing Tom De Koning
• Fremantle parts ways with Sean Darcy, while Luke Jackson remains long-term
• Collingwood re-signs Darcy Cameron