The Statistics Behind Borussia Dortmund’s Efforts to Revive Their Season Against Lille

Less than a year ago, Borussia Dortmund stunned the odds by taking to the pitch at Wembley Stadium for the Champions League final against Real Madrid.

Before Dani Carvajal found the back of the net in the 74th minute for Los Blancos, Die Schwarzgelben created several clear-cut chances, particularly through Karim Adeyemi. However, the outcome was ultimately disappointing.

With a fifth-place finish in the Bundesliga, lagging a staggering 27 points behind eventual champions Bayer Leverkusen, the club faced inevitable changes. Edin Terzić opted to step down ahead of a potential dismissal, marking the end of his tenure.

In a bid to maintain some continuity at BVB, the club’s management appointed Terzić’s assistant and Dortmund legend, Nuri Şahin, to lead the team into the 2024/25 season.

However, it soon became evident that this decision lacked adequate foresight. Following an exit from the German Cup and a failure to elevate the team’s performance to expected standards, Şahin was relieved of his duties by the end of January.

His successor, Niko Kovac, now faces a daunting challenge, especially with the current Bundesliga standings painting a grim picture.

After 25 matches, Dortmund have managed 10 wins and 10 losses, alongside five draws, leaving them languishing in 10th position, a staggering 26 points adrift of league leaders Bayern Munich.

Identifying the sources of their troubles is straightforward, with an average distance of only 114.5kms run per Bundesliga match this season, marking the second lowest in the division.

Only the players from Bochum have covered less ground, an alarming statistic for anyone associated with the black and yellow colours.

Wednesday night’s Champions League Round of 16 second leg clash against Lille holds added weight for the club, as their entire season hangs in the balance, depending on how far they can progress in this prestigious competition.

Dortmund and their Ligue 1 counterparts were closely matched in the group stage, each securing five victories out of eight matches.

The first leg displayed a similar tight contest, with Lille likely left wondering how they didn’t claim victory.

Dortmund managed just one shot on target, saw their lowest possession rate (43.1%) in a Champions League game this season, registered their lowest expected goals (0.27), and didn’t generate a single big chance throughout the encounter.

Records indicate that despite such a dismal performance, Dortmund still have a chance to progress. Interestingly, Lille’s record against German teams isn’t strong, having won just one of their last 10 encounters (D5, L4).

The two previous meetings with Dortmund have ended in draws as well, suggesting a penalty shootout could dictate who advances to face Barcelona.

Crucial to Lille’s ambitions is Jonathan David, who has been directly involved in eight goals over his last eight UCL matches (scoring six and assisting two). In the domestic league, he has been on fire, netting 14 goals, trailing only Ousmane Dembélé (20) and Mason Greenwood (15) in scoring.

The flow of the match may also hinge on the contributions of Dortmund’s Nico Schlotterbeck throughout the 90 minutes.

He has been a steady presence in BVB’s defence this season, and if Schlotterbeck can notch up at least 36 completed passes in this match, he will set the record for the most completed passes in a single UCL campaign since records began in 2003/04. Currently, he stands at 872, behind Ruben Dias’s record of 907 from last season.

These statistics illustrate the challenges Dortmund have faced, and Kovac will know that his side may need to endure some hardship to advance.

For Lille, Serhou Guirassy presents a formidable threat, boasting four goals and two assists in their UCL away fixtures this season, only bettered by Erling Haaland’s five goals and two assists for Dortmund back in the 2020/21 season.

Dortmund have triumphed in their last two away matches in the Champions League knockout phases (1-0 against PSG in last season’s semi-finals and 3-0 against Sporting in this season’s play-off), but they have yet to achieve three consecutive away wins in this stage of the tournament.

Historically, Dortmund have only advanced on one occasion out of seven when they have drawn the first leg of major European knockout ties, further igniting the hopes of the hosts.

Nevertheless, with Kovac at the helm, Dortmund might just have a stroke of luck on their side.

In his seven away matches in the Champions League managing German teams, he remains unbeaten. His record includes four wins and two draws with Bayern Munich, plus one victory with Dortmund, placing him only behind Louis van Gaal (14) and Pep Guardiola/Erik ten Hag (11) in this regard.

Even though Lille have claimed victory in three of their four home fixtures in the competition this season, that matches the total they had managed in their prior 22 UCL home encounters (D11, L8). If Dortmund are motivated for redemption, it could tip the balance in their favour.